$300B Uninsured: NatCat’s Biggest Missed Premiums

Good morning, ! This week we’re covering the $300B gap that no one is covering, share of insurtech transactions by funding stage, and the real premium growth opportunity. Plus, Athora’s big bet on UK pensions.

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DATA DIVE

The $300B Gap No One Insures

2023 natural catastrophes caused $300B+ in economic losses, yet just a third was insured. The Turkey-Syria earthquake alone racked up $92.4B in damages, but only $5.7B was covered—an object lesson in insurance penetration disparity. While the U.S. accounted for 67% of global insured losses, regions like Asia and Africa continue to absorb hits with minimal coverage. Meanwhile, secondary perils like convective storms (hello, $94B in 2023) are rising fast, even as hurricanes play second fiddle. If risk modeling doesn’t catch up with this new normal, carriers may find themselves underwriting yesterday’s weather.

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TREND OF THE WEEK

Protection Gap = Opportunity Gap

The global insurance sector might be stuck in a climate-risk blender, but investors are still piling in—because where there's a protection gap, there's margin. Rising catastrophes (see: floods, wildfires) are forcing pricing discipline in P&C, and the outlook remains positive thanks to cooling inflation and more stable rates. While non-life growth moderates, life insurance is quietly reclaiming relevance, buoyed by macro tailwinds. It's not flashy, but it’s where the cash is flowing. For PE sponsors: resilience and risk sophistication are the new premium multipliers. That’s less about “storm chasing” and more about long-term stability with upside. (More)

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From a $120M Acquisition to a $1.3T Market

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MARKET MOVERS

INSURTECH CORNER

Seed or Nothing: Early-Stage Still Dominates Insurtech Deals

The venture shift is real—and so is the reversion to fundamentals. In the first half of 2024, 42% of global Insurtech funding transactions occurred at the Seed stage, far outpacing Series A (18%) and Series B (10%). That means over half of all deal activity is happening before product-market fit, underscoring investors’ appetite for low-cost optionality and early innovation bets.

Meanwhile, later-stage funding continues to retreat: Series D and beyond account for just 5% of all transactions. This contraction suggests capital is drying up for growth-stage plays without strong margins or paths to profitability. The 17% share tagged as “Other” reflects a mix of bridge rounds, strategic investments, and restructuring-driven raises—further evidence of a fractured mid-to-late-stage market.

Why it matters: If you’re an incumbent looking to partner or acquire, your deal flow will be tilted toward early tech and small teams. For investors, the bifurcation signals a reset: high-conviction early bets are in, growth-stage excess is out.

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Athora Bets Big on UK Pensions with £5.7B PIC Acquisition

Athora is acquiring Pension Insurance Corporation Group (PICG) for £5.7 billion, a move that will make PIC the largest and fastest-growing business within its pan-European portfolio. The deal brings £50.9 billion of pension liabilities and 400,000 UK retirees under Athora’s umbrella, boosting total group assets to over €130 billion.

This is more than a scale play. For the first time in its 20-year history, PIC will be owned by a single strategic shareholder—giving it deeper capital access, deal-making agility, and long-term alignment with a pan-European retirement strategy. Backers include Apollo, Athene, and ADIA.

With the UK pension risk transfer market poised for explosive growth, this move positions Athora to go toe-to-toe with Aviva and Legal & General. It also injects fresh momentum into UK infrastructure and housing investment, where PIC already has £13.8 billion deployed.

Why it matters: Pension de-risking isn’t just a trend—it’s a structural reallocation of trillions. Athora just locked in a major seat at that table. (More)

MACROECONOMICS

Is the signal out of service?

Rates are high, inflation is sticky, and no one feels good about it. The Fed’s old playbook — use rates to guide behavior — is showing its age. Consumer sentiment is worse than 2008, and inflation expectations are drifting north. That’s a problem when your entire model assumes trust in central banks. PE sponsors should recalibrate: expect duration risk to spike, LP skepticism to grow, and macroeconomic intuition to matter less than psychological noise. Welcome to a market where your next behavioral economist might be more useful than your bond trader. (More)

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TWEET OF THE WEEK

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful."

Albert Schweitzer