U.S. Goldfinger: Trump’s Swiss Tariff Twist Hits Global Nerve

Trump’s 39% Tariff on Swiss Goods and Gold Shakes Global Trade

The move targets one of the United States' most favorable trade relationships and strikes directly at Switzerland’s high-value exports like luxury watches, machinery, chocolate, and, notably, nonmonetary gold.

A Trade Deficit Targeted

Switzerland has long enjoyed a trade surplus with the United States, exporting $63.32 billion in goods in 2024 while importing just over $25 billion from the U.S., resulting in a trade deficit of $38.3 billion. That deficit has been a consistent irritant for Trump, who views such imbalances as signs of unfair trade practices — regardless of the structural causes behind them.

Trump’s tariff decision followed a now-infamous phone call with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, during which Swiss negotiators believed they had secured a 10% tariff deal. Instead, Trump imposed a punishing 39% levy — one of the highest in the world, rivaling tariffs applied to Laos and Myanmar. The shock move came despite Switzerland already offering nearly 99.3% free market access to U.S. products and after its removal of most import tariffs in 2024.

Gold in the Crosshairs

The tariffs strike at the heart of Switzerland’s gold refining industry. Switzerland processes over two-thirds of the world’s nonmonetary gold, much of which is re-exported to the U.S. With gold prices surging amid rising global tensions and fears of a weakening U.S. economy, the impact could be severe for American importers and Swiss refiners alike.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the import price index for nonmonetary gold has skyrocketed in 2025 — up more than 30% since December 2024 alone. As trade tensions mount and central banks hint at interest rate cuts, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset has surged, driving prices to over $3,385 per ounce. The 39% tariff will only further inflate these costs, making gold imports from Switzerland significantly more expensive.

Economic Repercussions

The Swiss government has scrambled to respond. Keller-Sutter and business minister Guy Parmelin indicated willingness to renegotiate, with an eye toward concessions such as increasing Swiss investment in the U.S. or purchasing more American liquefied natural gas. However, the U.S. administration appears fixated on addressing the nominal goods trade deficit.

Industry leaders in Switzerland warn that tens of thousands of jobs could be at risk if the tariffs remain. Swissmem, the country’s industry association, warned of an “export death sentence” for manufacturers, particularly in luxury sectors. Swatch, Rolex, and Lindt could face massive losses in their largest non-European market. Even if pharmaceuticals — which make up $35 billion of Swiss exports to the U.S. — are currently exempt, that protection could be withdrawn at any time.

Political Fallout

Domestically, President Keller-Sutter faces fierce criticism. Swiss media described her conversation with Trump as a “disastrous misjudgment,” and commentators slammed her for being “naive” in the face of Trump’s aggressive negotiation style. The Swiss stock market initially plunged following the announcement and has only partially recovered, with economic analysts forecasting near-stagnation and potential recession if the tariffs remain in place for more than a year.

Hans Gersbach of ETH Zurich estimates the Swiss GDP could contract by up to 0.6%, while others warn that the Swiss National Bank may be forced to cut interest rates in response to the shock.

What Comes Next?

Although the tariffs have already taken effect, many observers believe Trump’s positions remain fluid. Analysts and lawmakers, including Swiss-U.S. Parliamentary Association chair Damien Cottier, remain hopeful that further talks can de-escalate the situation.

But for now, the U.S.-Swiss trade relationship — long a model of stable economic cooperation — is at its most fragile point in decades. And with gold prices spiking and job losses looming, the impact of Trump’s tariff crusade may be felt far beyond Washington and Bern.

Sources & References

CNBC. (2025). Safe-haven gold touches 2-week peak on trade tensions, rate cut hopes. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/gold-gains-as-trump-doubles-india-tariffs-boosting-safe-haven-demand.html 

CNBC. (2025). Switzerland will pursue further talks with US over crippling tariffs. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/switzerland-will-pursue-further-talks-with-us-over-crippling-tariffs.html 

The Guardian. (2025). Swiss president under fire after Trump call leads to US tariffs shock. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/04/swiss-president-shares-plunge-us-tariffs-trump 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Import Price Index (End Use): Nonmonetary Gold [IR14270], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR14270, August 8, 2025.

US Census Bureau. (2025). Trade in Goods with Switzerland. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4419.html